We’ve been rather spoilt of late.
The UFC’s pay-per-views over the last six months have been nothing short of stellar but, having just taken a gander at the updated UFC 196 card, I’m left a little bit worried that it could turn into something of a damp squib, albeit a profitable damp squib.
People are always going to tune in to see Conor McGregor fight, that’s clear.
And the fact that he has the chance to make history the next time he steps on to the octagon’s canvas ensures that there will be a healthy audience waiting up until the wee hours.
Holly Holm’s first title defence won’t hurt the viewership either but, as of the time of writing, there are 12 fights on the card and not many of them are going to appeal to anybody other than the hardcore fans.
Of the 20 fighters who are not involved in the title fights, only six are ranked in the top fifteen of their division and only one (Amanda Nunes) is in the top ten.
That, to me, reads like a card with very little impact on title pictures.
Don’t get me wrong. Diego Sanchez vs. Jim Miller will be a war and it will be interesting to see the light heavyweight division shake out a bit but, apart from Nunes, can you really see any of the other 20 non-title fight fighters competing for a belt in the foreseeable future?
I know there is more to MMA than building towards titles but pay-per-view events are for the big time fighters.
This may seem a tad premature and there could well be one or two amazing fights added to the March 5th event but I’d seriously doubt it.
Let’s look at the last five UFC pay-per-views.
UFC 195 – 12 fights, UFC 194 – 12 fights, UFC 193 – 13 fights, UFC 192 – 12 fights, UFC 191 – 11 fights.
There are already 12 fights on the UFC 196 card so, in all reality, we’ll be lucky to get another bout added.
And it will have have to be an absolute barn-burner to live up to the likes of those last five main cards.
I would argue that UFC 196, as it stands, does not hold up against any of the five that preceded it. Maybe 195, if I’m being generous.
Not every card is going to be a UFC 194 or a UFC 189 or, going further back, UFC 168, UFC 152, UFC 129. The list of classics goes on and on and I know that not every card can live up to that standard. But if the UFC thinks that McGregor, on his own, is enough to hang a pay-per-view on, they’re mistaken.
To not stack a pay-per-view is a massive risk to take. We saw what happened to the original UFC 196. The biggest fight on the card fell through so the promotion had to relegate it to Fight Night status.
Let’s say, knock on wood, that Conor McGregor or Rafael dos Anjos were to get injured in the next few weeks. Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate would be an acceptable main event but what in the hell would move to co-main event status then?
Tom Lawlor vs. Corey Anderson is a great fight but it’s not co-main event level ‘great.’ The same can be said for Ilir Latifi vs. Gian Villante and Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko.
The beauty with the last five pay-per-view cards was that there were options. If any fighter pulled out, there were enough movable parts to justify the cost of the event to fans.
You’d struggle to say the same about UFC 196, as is, and losing Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson was a hammer blow because at least that had title implications, had importance, had that rematch narrative.
As I said above, another huge fight could be announced in a matter of hours but I’d doubt it.
We’re used to seeing the upper echelons of fighters enjoy a six week/eight week fight camp ahead of bouts.
There are only 20 days until UFC 196 and fighters with a lot to lose will often be unwilling to sign bout agreements on notice as short as this.
We’re accustomed to seeing record pay-per-view buyrates when Conor McGregor is fighting but, without an amazing addition, this card could well struggle to break the million barrier.
Perhaps I’m being greedy in wanting more but, hey, the UFC set the standard.
Now they have to uphold it.
