We don’t throw the term “shit storm” around too freely but that’s exactly where Conor McGregor finds himself after news of Jose Aldo’s broken rib.
If we look at the permutations of outcomes for the Irish featherweight if the title fight is called off then there’s not an awful lot of excitement on the horizon for The Notorious.
There are essentially two results. He either fights in 17 days or he waits for Aldo.
If he does take to the octagon on July 11 it will likely be against either Frankie Edgar or Chad Mendes, both of whom are entirely different challenges than that which he has been preparing for since January.
McGregor has spent six months training for an aggressive kickboxer with some of the best leg kicks in the game who also happens to hold a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu.
I somehow don’t reckon that McGregor has been drilling his takedown defence as much as he would have been if he had known that Mendes or Edgar would be standing opposite him this summer.
17 days is not enough time to get anything done in terms of preparation for the kind of smothering wrestling that both Chad and Frankie have in their arsenal.
While it’s very possible that McGregor beats either guy, it’s just as likely that the late replacement produces an upset and BOOM, they find themselves next in line for the featherweight strap and McGregor takes one or two steps backwards in the division.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the UFC set up an interim title fight between McGregor and Edgar on July 11 and McGregor happens to lose.
That means that Edgar and Aldo will fight to unify the title in the autumn and whoever wins that fight will likely take at least six months off before the next defence. If Edgar wins then an immediate rematch is on the horizon which pushes McGregor’s title shot back an even further 6-9 months.
And let’s suppose that in those six months Chad Mendes puts forward an amazing performance on the back of his unbelievable showing against Ricardo Lamas. It wouldn’t be inconceivable, then, to see him leapfrog McGregor.
What I’m trying to say is that it would be far too much of a risk to take for McGregor when right now he is the number one contender.
The most intelligent course of action would be to bite the bullet and wait it out for his title shot which would likely take place in October/November.
It might frustrate him to have to let down the Irish fans who have spent thousands for the chance to see their hero bring UFC gold back to Ireland but that frustration would be just a fraction of that felt if he was punished for jumping the gun by accepting a dangerous fight on such short notice.
McGregor’s an intelligent competitor and he should seriously consider the gamble that he’d be taking by accepting an Edgar/Mendes fight.
He’s making enough from sponsorship to see him through the few months’ wait for a chance at the champion and, being the smart businessman that he is, he would do well to refuse the guaranteed paycheck from a July 11 bout and hold out for the big payday against Aldo.
