The next few days are going to be defining in the fairytale career of Conor McGregor.
And the final decision he and his team arrive at could solidify his legacy as one of the gamest fighters in the history of mixed martial arts or, alternatively, it may have dire consequences for his standing in the sport.
Rumours broke on Tuesday morning that UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos had pulled out of UFC 196’s main event, citing a broken foot.
It all bears an uncanny resemblance to the scenario which saw former UFC featherweight champ Jose Aldo withdraw from UFC 189 last year.
The same source, Ana Hissa, confirmed both stories. The UFC is, once more, scrambling for a replacement on two weeks’ notice. And, once again, Conor McGregor is between a rock and a hard place.
Sadly true https://t.co/ClllshElrt
— Ana Hissa (@AnaHissa) February 23, 2016
But one huge difference this time around is that, realistically, Conor McGregor shouldn’t feel obliged to accept a stand-in opponent.
Last year, the length of time that ‘The Notorious’ had spent waiting for UFC gold was too much for him and he took the Chad Mendes fight, for the interim belt, which could well have turned out differently if not for Mendes’ depleted gas tank.
But lightning doesn’t often strike twice and Conor McGregor should view the first round of the Mendes fight as a cautionary tale that dissuades him from rushing in blindly to another short notice bout because he is an ‘accept all comers’ kind of competitor.
That attitude rarely, if ever, works out well in the long run.
Another major difference this time is the fact that dos Anjos last fought in December and could be healed in time for the summer.
Dos Anjos has been much more active than Aldo and doesn’t deserve to have two other men fight for the interim iteration of his title, not only that but it would sully the shine of the notion of ‘interim champions.’
The UFC can’t just go throwing interim belts around when champions pull out in order to keep the allure alive for fight fans. If that’s the case then we’ll have unification bouts three or four times a year, cheapening the value of those special occasions.
So with an interim belt unlikely to be on offer, what benefit would Mr. McGregor enjoy from accepting a new fight?
If he wins against a Donald Cerrone, Nate Diaz or Tony Ferguson then great! He’s proven that he can hang with 155 lbers and he would fight RDA next but the risk definitely outweighs the potential reward.
There is a genuine possibility that he gets beaten by one of the above names, which would send him straight back to 145 lbs to defend his own title, taking the gloss off the unbeatable sparkle that he has worked tirelessly to cultivate.
It will not come as music to the ears of Irish fans (or journalists like myself) travelling to Las Vegas to hear my advice to McGregor, which is a resounding ‘hold off!’
It’s far too dangerous to accept a bout against one of those lightweight killers because McGregor isn’t exactly accustomed to fighting at 155 lbs and he could forever ruin his legacy just because he wants to keep his supporters happy.
True fans would surely be much more content to see McGregor patiently wait for his lightweight shot rather than jump at the chance to fight a man for whom he hasn’t been preparing and get caught unaware.
McGregor has made a point of doing everything in his power to pay back the support he receives from his die-hard fans but he shouldn’t do so at the peril of his career.
Waiting another few months to fight is not the ideal scenario for ‘The Notorious’ but it is definitely the smartest option on the table right now.
Wading into already unfamiliar waters is dangerous enough, never mind doing so against an opponent posing threats you have not prepared for.
SBG head coach John Kavanagh tells a story about how unshakeable McGregor was when he found out about the opponent switch-up for UFC 189, how he just accepted the news like he had been told that they would be travelling in the red car instead of the white car that day.
And, as admirable a trait as that is in a fighter, such confidence is almost always discovered to be finite.
This decision is not to be taken lightly and they should think long and hard before they sign on the dotted line because the fight game – like poker – is about making risks pay off in the short term.
However it’s by making smart career choices that the good become greats.
