MMA

06th May 2016

UFC Rotterdam: SportsJOE picks the winners so you don’t have to

SportsJOE

Neil Seery is set for the biggest fight of his career at UFC Fight Night 87. But can “2 Tap” upset the odds and defeat one of the flyweight division’s hottest prospects?

Darragh The Quizmaster Murphy: 38-20

Bourbon Ben Kiely: 36-22

Alistair Overeem (40-14, 1 NC) vs. Andrei Arlovski (25-11, 1 NC)

DM: As much as I think Alistair Overeem will win this fight, I don’t see his 10/23 odds as being that reflective of his superiority over Andrei Arlovski.

If Arlovski catches Overeem flush then it’s over, simple as that. So I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see one of the 249 Pitbulls currently contracted to the UFC come out on top.

But, having said that, Overeem has a deeper toolbox and is more assertive from the off. His kicking game alone is leading me to lean his way.

My prediction is that Arlovski gets clipped in a wild exchange, tries to clinch with Overeem to allow himself time to recover but finds himself being run through the wood-chipper known as Overeem’s knees. Overeem via TKO (round one)

BK: It’s a heavyweight fight, anything can happen.

Although both these fighter’s chins have seen better days, I feel like Overeem is fighting more intelligently to protest it than the former champion.

The one thing Arlovski has in his favour is that Greg Jackson will be in his corner, while Overeem has broken off and is working with his own coaches for this fight. You’d like to think that Jackson has the knowledge and the tactical prowess to devise a strategy to beat Overeem, but I just don’t have faith in Arlovski’s ability to stick to it. Overeem via TKO (round one)

Antonio Silva (19-8-1) vs. Stefan Struve (26-8)

DM: For entertainment’s sake, I’m hoping that ‘Bigfoot’ doesn’t adopt the Jared Rosholt blueprint for how to beat Struve.

Struve showed a glaring hole in his game with his lack of defensive wrestling against Rosholt but, then again, Silva isn’t as good a wrestler as boring ol’ Rosholt.

These are two giant men and either can knock the other out at a moment’s notice but I think Struve will have a lot of respect for the power of ‘Bigfoot’ and look to stick behind his jab and leg kicks, like he did against ‘Big Nog’ to keep Silva on the outside for fifteen minutes.

That won’t lead to the most thrilling fight but a defeat would leave Struve with just one win since 2012 so now’s the time for results, not excitement. Struve by decision

BK: For such a lanky, awkward fucker, Struve has never been able to quite use his reach advantage.

Luckily for Struve, Bigfoot’s best years are well and truly behind him. He hasn’t looked the same since that 25 minutes of hell Mark Hunt put him through in 2013.

If it stays on the feet, I’d lean towards Struve because of Bigfoot’s slightly more weakened chin, but we learned from the Rosholt bore-fest that Struve is like a turtle on his back that can’t quite right itself. If Silva gets the takedown, it should be all over. Struve by TKO (round two)

Albert Tumenov (17-2) vs. Gunnar Nelson (14-2-1)

DM: Albert Tumenov is a scary motherfucker.

But Tumenov is also a scary motherfucker who’s never been pitted against a grappler of Gunnar Nelson’s quality.

The gameplan is clear because, as elusive as Nelson is on the feet, I don’t think anyone at 170 lbs would be smart to stand with Tumenov who may well have the best hands at welterweight.

Nelson should close the distance early and pull guard if need be because time spent striking with Tumenov is essentially a countdown to a knockout.

Getting to the ground in the first round will give Nelson the opportunity to frustrate Tumenov and, at the very least, nullify his power on the feet. Nelson by decision

BK: You won’t find a bigger fan of Gunni than this writer, but I think he’s in over his head here.

Path to victory is easy – using his grappling prowess to negate his opponent’s vastly superior striking. The issue – Tumenov is incredibly difficult to get to the ground. He has excellent takedown defence and his striking from the outside and middle ranges means trying to close the distance is a very unforgiving task.

With Gunni’s tendency to drop the hands, I believe it’s going to be another hard night for the honourary Irish man. Personally, I’d prefer to see what he could do at lightweight. At least those murderers are closer to his own size. Tumenov by decision

Germaine de Randamie (5-3) vs. Anna Elmose (3-0)

DM: If Holly Holm is the best traditional kickboxer in the women’s bantamweight division, I believe Germaine de Randamie is the most lethal Muay Thai practitioner at 135 lbs.

She’s got an interesting take on the plum clinch that she’s adopted for MMA which incorporates an underhook to prevent opponents’ takedown attempts but I don’t believe Elmose will be looking for the shot against the Dutch stand-out.

I can see de Randamie getting in Elmose’s face from the get-go, pressing her back against the fence and raining down with elbows and knees for an early stoppage.

Elmose is out of her depth and de Randamie scares me. De Randamie via TKO (round one)

BK: Bet on Germain de Randamie at your own peril. While she’s a decorated Muay Thai fighter, she has a lot of holes in her game that are there to be taken advantage of. She’s shocking off her back.

That being said, Elmose has only been training in MMA for a short amount of time and it’s her promotional debut. These are all the ingredients necessary for her to get completely overwhelmed. De Randamie via KO (round one)

Nikita Krylov (19-4) vs. Francimar Barroso (18-4)

DM: As disappointing as it was to see Krylov abandon the ‘Al Capone,’ he’s still the better guy here.

Barroso has just turned 36 and that age has to start telling on fighters and in spite of his explosiveness on the feet, Krylov does the basics better.

Finishing instinct has to be taken into consideration and Krylov is dripping with the stuff, having not let any of his victories go to the judges.

I can see a Barroso kick being caught by the Ukrainian before Krylov methodically takes the back, sinks in hooks and either pounds his way to a TKO win or locks up the rear naked. Krylov via submission (round two)

BK: In a division devoid of future stars, Krylov is the one hot prospect that’s been showing promise.

The Ukrainian fighter is consistently getting wins over formidable opponents, but more importantly, he’s improving with each fight and adding new strings to his bow.

Barrosa is a flat-footed, one or two punch and back off kind of fighter. Krylov should be able to run rings around him and score a dominant win. Krylov via TKO (round two)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (8-0) vs. Heather Jo Clark (7-4)

DM: I really don’t see how Heather Jo gets this done.

Her biggest attribute is her toughness but the only benefit to that stubborn refusal to quit is that she ends up going the distance rather than get finished.

Clark isn’t the finished product on the feet, nor does she have the wrestling acumen to fall back on to use her top game against Kowalkiewicz.

I think it will go the distance but I don’t think it will be close. Kowalkiewicz by decision

BK: December 2014. That’s the last time Heather Jo Clark has fought inside the Octagon. Meanwhile, Kowalkiewicz has been staying active and keeping her pristine professional record intact.

While I believe the Polish fighter is really more of an atomweight and would struggle against top tier strawweights. Clark is streets behind that level, as you can tell by that loss on her record to Felice Herrig. Kowalkiewicz by decision

Kyoji Horiguchi (16-2) vs. Neil Seery (16-11)

DM: Who doesn’t adore a bit of Neil Seery?

I’m one of the biggest fans of ‘2 Tap’ and I really think there are top ten guys against whom he comes out on top.

But it pains me to say that I don’t see Horiguchi as one of those good stylistic match-ups.

Horiguchi is too elusive and disciplined on the feet to stand in the pocket and trade with Seery. That’s not to say that Seery lacks technique on the feet as the Finglas flyweight has some of the crispest boxing in the division but I think Horiguchi is too good at slipping shots to consistently get hit. Horiguchi by decision

BK: Everyone’s writing off Neil Seery for this fight, saying things like he’s the wrong side of 35, he’s too slow, he’s losing the striking battle and he doesn’t have the wrestling acumen to cope with a fighter who many peg as a future flyweight champion.

Despite all this negativity, Seery’s mentality hasn’t altered, not even a little bit. He’s a fighter – he’s going out there to fight and his reluctance to let the occasion get to him means he’s primed for an upset.

Seery’s an underdog for a reason, Horiguchi’s a more technical fighter in the prime of his life who focuses all his efforts on the art of combat. Seery’s an auld fella with a day job. However, he’s crafty, has an unbelievable chin, stellar boxing and a slick submission game. This is by no means a walkover, “2 Tap” could beat just about anybody on his day.

How could you not get romantic about MMA with underdog stories of this calibre? It’s essentially the Finglas Rocky Balboa vs the Japanese Apollo Creed. Seery via submission (round two)