Let's clear a few things up.
The main event at UFC 189 has been an analyst's nightmare since it was first announced.
Conor McGregor's lack of fights against top tier opposition, the Edgars and the Aldos of this world, has left a lot of uncertainty over where he stands among the upper echelon of the 145lb division.
Now that Chad Mendes has replaced the injured Jose Aldo, the headline bout has arguably become stylistically more intriguing. The match-up gives a great opportunity to gain valuable insights into the skill-sets of these fighters and answer some of the unknowns regarding their respective abilities.
This is, of course, assuming that we actually get a competitive fight which isn't ended early by an Aldo-esque flying knee or a lightning quick submission a la Joseph Duffy in the opening exchanges. If more than a round or two, here are some questions that are likely to be answered.
1. Can McGregor do it against elite-level opponents?
This is the one that's been hanging over the Notorious' head since he was granted the title shot. His detractor's argue that he jumped the queue to take on the champion without having faced any top class opposition inside the Octagon.
This is somewhat unfair. The Dustin Poirier victory, for example, was extremely impressive. In that fight, McGregor defeated a highly-touted fighter who was gunning for a title shot and he did so in his stride.
Yet, people still found excuses to diminish the significance of the win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2yLtEpYUOw
Some suggested that Poirier never should have reached #5 in the rankings, citing the loss as a sign that he wasn't cut to be a top tier featherweight.
This is because of a strange sentiment some UFC fans harbour that fighters suddenly become terrible after losing a bout. Case in point, the fallout from Cain Velasquez's recent dethroning at the hands of Fabricio Werdum.
Poirier is a gifted fighter. All you have to do is look at his two consecutive KO victories at lightweight since the McGregor loss to come to that realisation. As is Max Holloway, who has risen to #5 in the division after notching up six-straight wins since his losing that decision to the Notorious.
However, as good as both these fighters are, nobody can argue that they are currently as good as the current top three 145-ers. McGregor's been so impressive against fighters who are just on the cusp of being considered elite-level, that he will be more than able to. Admittedly though, that's just an educated guess. We'll find out for sure on Saturday.
2. Is wrestling McGregor's kryptonite?
The idea that wrestling may be McGregor's weakness is a legitimate concern. None of his opponent's under the UFC banner so far could be described as "not a striker". He has yet to take on anyone who possesses elite wrestling, which some argue has been orchestrated by the UFC to increase his stock.
It certainly appears as if the UFC have been giving him favourable match-ups. How else can you explain Dennis Siver being the immediate follow up to his annihilation of Poirier?
However, if that is the intention of the UFC, ducking wrestlers is not something McGregor is all that concerned with. Lest we forget he has agreed to take on arguably the best wrestler in the division in Chad Mendes, at the risk of surrendering that lucrative title fight with Aldo.
If McGregor can cope with the best in the business, then we can finally put this question mark over this aspect of his game to bed.
3. Will Mendes be able to take McGregor down/ can he keep him there?
Aside from "taking his head clean off, there is nothing Mendes would like more than to take McGregor down, frustrate him and grind out the victory. However, there is no guarantee that he will be able to so, and if he does, that he'll be able to stay dominant on the ground.
Since that pesky loss to Duffy, McGregor's wrestling and takedown defence has steadily improved. We've seen in his later bouts in Cage Warriors that he is difficult to get down to the mat. He'll sprawl, tie you up against the fence and worst of all, unleash relentless punishment with elbows and strikes for having the temerity to take fight off the feet.
We haven't seen a great deal of this part of McGregor's game in the UFC, but that's because we haven't really seen a lot of McGregor in the UFC. Although he's had five fights in the promotion, four quick knockouts and a grinding decision victory against strikers don't give us a lot of data to pour over in the wrestling department.
That being said, the statistics we do have on him in this area are very promising.
Considering how we've seen stark improvements in almost every other facet of the Dubliner's game, the likelihood is his wrestling ability has also grown. Just because we haven't seen him implement it in a fight, doesn't mean he hasn't got it in his arsenal.
There is as good a chance as any that work McGregor has put in behind closed doors has given him the tools to negate Mendes' wrestling.
4. Will the mental battle affect Mendes?
You could tell from Aldo's reactions to McGregor's constant psychological torture on the UFC 189 Media Tour, that there are two parts to fighting McGregor, and often the pre-fight verbal sparring can be more gruelling than the fight itself.
"He’s talking about putting balls on my head… you know, just being very unprofessional. This is something that made it personal. For me, you don’t fucking do that."
These were the words Chad Mendes uttered during the UFC 189 conference call.
The fact that such a juvenile slagging upset the 30-year-old to the point in which he considered this fight to be "personal" could indicate that he may not be mentally prepared for McGregor's unique antics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6HIZX3rfpI
5. Who is the true number-one contender... who isn't named Frankie Edgar?
The outcome of this bout should give a good sense of what's in store for the immediate future of the division. Assuming Aldo doesn't call time on his career, the victor will be granted the opportunity to unify the belts.
If it's McGregor, we'll finally get to see that multi-million dollar fight that the UFC has been cruelly teasing us with for months. If Mendes wins, well then we're on course for another fight of the year contender. It's a win-win.
Either way, it looks like Frankie Edgar will be waiting by his phone, trying to figure out why he was snubbed to replace the injured champion in favour of a guy who just lost to Aldo last year.
https://instagram.com/p/4SiKR3k3H9/
Seems strange.
