There are three kinds of lies according to the adage made famous by Mark Twain and they’re “lies, damned lies and statistics.”
But Twain never struck us as much of a fight fan and we reckon the best way to break down the proficiency of mixed martial artists is with the use of statistics.
The numbers are hard to ignore and Conor McGregor’s meteoric rise to the top of the UFC’s featherweight division is best summed up by looking at the cold, hard figures.
The Notorious has spent less than half an hour of fight time inside the octagon which translates to just 1,732 seconds of action, resulting in four knockouts.
By contrast, Chad Mendes has spent more than twice that time in UFC bouts with 72 minutes of fight time under his belt under the promotion.
FightMetric gathered the data of active UFC fighters who had at least five fights with the promotion and the results show that McGregor is currently in top spot among average fight time of featherweight fighters at 5:46.
Chad Mendes isn’t exactly leagues behind as he finds himself in ninth place among featherweights with an average UFC fight time of 9:11.
In terms of fights, Mendes has exactly twice as many bouts in the UFC as his Irish counterpart with ten compared to McGregor’s five but both fighters currently hold identical MMA records at 17-2.
Throughout the careers of both fighters, even before their octagon debut, they’ve been famed for their finishing prowess. But how do the stoppage rates of McGregor and Mendes match up?
Among the 17 wins of each featherweight, McGregor has finished all but one of his victories with his only decision win coming against Max Holloway when he switched to a grappling gameplan after sustaining a knee injury.
Money, on the other hand, has a less spectacular rate of finishing as almost half of his victories have come by way of decision.
Back when we thought it was McGregor v Aldo, much was made of the reach discrepancy and whether Aldo would be able to get on the inside of the rangy striking of The Notorious.
Those questions have become even more intriguing now because Mendes is actually shorter than the injured Brazilian champion.
McGregor is three inches taller than the former two-time featherweight challenger which translates to an incredible eight inch reach advantage.
But being statisticians for the day, we’re going to attempt to avoid looking at hypothetical elements like whether or not Mendes can get inside McGregor’s lengthy striking.
Rather, we’re going to look at how well various techniques have served the pair in their UFC careers.
First, let’s examine how McGregor and Mendes have fared in terms of accuracy of significant strikes.
In McGregor’s five fights with the UFC, he has thrown 385 significant strike and landed 165 of them on his opponent which gives the Irishman a significant striking accuracy of 43%.
Somewhat surprisingly for a fighter with a wrestling background, Chad Mendes actually has a remarkably better significant striking percentage than McGregor who comes from a stand-up background.
The American has thrown 615 significant strikes in his UFC career and has landed with exactly 300 of them which gives Mendes a percentage of 49%.
Those stats show that both men tend to look for the knockout but to do so, they often have to mix up their striking with shots to the head, body and legs.
In McGregor’s five fights with the UFC, he’s been adamant about pursuing the knockout at all costs and that’s clear to see judging by the targets of his significant strikes landed. He’s found a home for his head strikes 81% of the time, the body 12% of the time and has neglected the leg strikes a little with just 7% of his attacks landing below the waist.
A lot of people were presuming that McGregor’s initial opponent Jose Aldo would target the legs of the Irishman so as to hinder McGregor’s movement in the latter rounds and, according to the stats, Mendes is no slouch when it comes to leg kicks either.
30% of Mendes’ accounts are aimed at the legs of his opponent while he seldom targets the body (10%). Predictably, 60% of his strikes are head shots.
Most MMA pundits are pointing to Money‘s elite wrestling pedigree as the biggest threat to McGregor.
We’ve taken a look at the offensive and defensive wrestling history of both men and found that McGregor’s wrestling techniques, as little as we’ve seen them, are statistically better than those of Mendes.
In McGregor’s five UFC fights, he’s attempted six takedowns and found success on five occasions which gives him an execution rate of 83% while he’s defended each of the five takedowns that his opponents have attempted.
Mendes, in his 10 UFC fights, has actually only dragged his opponents to the mat 20 times out of the 45 attempted takedowns which leaves the Californian with a success rate of 44%. He has an identical, if a little more impressive, takedown defence rate after holding off 13 of 13 attempts.
Let’s say that the NCAA Division I wrestler is able to get McGregor to the mat. How proficient is Mendes when the fight hits the ground and how active is The Notorious in the grappling realm?
While McGregor might not be overly aggressive in terms of submission pursuit, having never attempted one in the UFC, his passing rate would suggest that he is consistently active in the search for a better position. He’s never attempted a reversal because he’s never really been put in the position where he’s been on his back and in need of a sweep.
Mendes, meanwhile, has attempted more submissions but has looked to progress to superior positions less than upcoming opponent Conor McGregor. The lack of reversals come with the fact that he’s never been taken down so has never required a sweep.
So there you have it. Maths can be fun, eh?
