The weather was all over the shop at Punchestown yesterday, and predicting if it would be hail stones or a hot sun every time you left the press room was slightly easier that picking winners. More than half were double priced so while it was a good day for the bookies, it was not profitable for punters.
Today should be a bit easier (I hope!) and I am going to start with the main feature, the Gold Cup at 5:30. Six go to post and I’ll begin my case for my selection by telling you why the others won’t win.
Outlander, the Lexus Chase winner probably wants softer ground to be at his best, and even at his best, I think he falls fractionally short of class. Djakadam was well behind Sizing John in the Gold Cup, and I don’t see why today will be any different. Flemenstar was great. ‘WAS’ being the all important word in that sentence
Champagne West was good at Gowran but, again, we have no evidence to suggest he’ll find the 27 lengths that he was behind the winner in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Coneygree was unbelievable winning the 2015 edition, but injury might just have robbed his good years.
With all that in mind, I feel Sizing John will add his name to the history books by winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Irish Gold Cup and the Punchestown Gold Cup this afternoon.
The Guinness Handicap Chase goes to post at 6:40 and last year’s winner Irish Cavalier has made the trip across the water to defend his crown. His last outing was the Topham Handicap Chase at Aintree and that wouldn’t inspire confidence for his supporters today.
Polidum makes his debut for Willie Mullins having had a decent career in France. He was entered in the Aintree Grand National but didn’t get in which must lead us to believe the team believe he’s got the goods to win the top handicaps.
I think he is the winner but his price has shortened a lot so one at treble the price – Rachael Blackmore’s mount People’s Park – is interesting.
Truthfully I was drawn to this horse because of his name as I live near Dun Laoighaire, where there is a ‘Peoples Park’ but when I looked at his form, it’s not all bad. Plus he’s off bottom weight and Rachael takes another 3lbs off him so he wont even know she’s on his back. While Polidum is my pick for the winner, Peoples Park could place so backable each way.
In the Mares Bumper, the last race at 7:05, I am opting for Bluegrass Princess. Kentucky is home of the bluegrass, a place where I spent time working with some amazing horses, and although she mightn’t be hall of fame material, she was mega impressive when getting the better of a Willie Mullins hot pot, Mystic Theatre, who re-opposes, by no less than 11 lengths last time out.
That was on a softer surface, and her breeding suggests she be even better on the ground at Punchestown today.
Hopefully she’ll sign off a winning day for me at the office.
