By Andrew Pierse
It’s that time of the year again. Golf’s biggest test is back as the 116th US Open returns to the Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania.
There’s been a lot of talk over the last few weeks about how the course has been set-up as the most difficult in major history and all we can say is, believe the hype.
It’s long, it’s tight, the rough is as thick as we’ve ever seen and putting on the greens has been compared to putting along a pane of glass.
The last time it was hosted here, big Angel Cabrera walked away with the prize after a winning score of +5, and this year is going to be every bit as difficult.
Picking a winner out of such a high quality field is no easy ask this weekend, but for any punters looking for value for their money, it’s important to look at three key areas: driving accuracy, scrambling and putting.
Whoever wins here will rank well in all three, so based on these tour stats over the last few months, the course really seems to set up well for a few players.
- Jason Day (8/1): The world number one has been red hot over the last 12 months, picking up a first major win at the PGA Championship last August, as well as three wins on the PGA tour since March. He’s been in the form of his life and the course sets up perfectly for him considering his quality putting and scrambling stats, as well as his length off the tee. Rumours are though he has been sick with the flu over the last week which could throw a spanner in the works.
- Patrick Reed (45/1): The world number 11 has the most top 10 finishes of any player on the PGA tour, as well as ranking in the top 10 for scrambling stats. Although Irish fans might not be a big fan of his after his Ryder Cup antics a couple of years ago, there’s no denying he is a steal at 45/1 and we expect him to be there or thereabouts come Sunday.
- Phil Mickleson (30/1): Based on his form over the last 18 months, I wouldn’t normally suggest throwing any cash on Phil. However, he has hit some form in the last month including a 2nd place finish at the St Judes classic just last week, and a tie for 4th in a competitive field at the Wells Fargo in May. He tops the scrambling, putting and bogey avoidance stats on tour this year and in an event where short game will decide the winner, there isn’t a player with a better one out there. A solid bet at 30/1.
Those to avoid:
- Rory McIlroy (9/1): To put it nicely, his putting just hasn’t been good enough lately. His experiment with his new grip has yielded mixed results and although he makes a lot of birdies, he also makes a huge amount of bogeys. I’m rooting for him to win a 5th major but I just don’t see it happening here.
- Jordan Spieth (10/1): He’s the defending champion and when his putter is hot, he’s unbeatable. He’s putter has been surprisingly cold lately though despite a good win towards the end of May. He messed up badly in Augusta only a couple of months ago and I’m not sure if he’s fully recovered mentally yet.
- Dustin Johnson (15/1): He has all the talent in the world.. But he’s a choker. He’s choked time and time again including at this very event last year. I’m starting to think it’s just never going to happen for him.
The Outsiders:
- Matt Fitzpatrick (61/1): The most exciting young talent in European golf has been rapidly climbing the world rankings over the last 12 months. He leads the European Tour in top 10 finishes, had a great win at the Nordea Masters a couple of weeks ago and he has all the qualities required to get it done here. He’ll keep the ball on the fairway, putt well and scramble well to save pars when needed. A great e/w bet at 61/1.
- Webb Simpson (101/1): He’s a former winner and he ranks well in all of the required stats to tackle Oakmont. Although he’s coming off the back of a couple of tough years, his form has improved lately and he has a great chance of placing, if not even challenging for the trophy here.
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