GAA

29th Mar 2017

Here’s exactly what every county needs to happen to avoid relegation or get promoted

It's all to play for on the last day

Conan Doherty

Here’s exactly what every county needs to happen to avoid relegation or get promoted

One game left and some teams could just as easily be relegated as they could be promoted.

Apart from Louth and Kildare’s promotions from Division Three and Two respectively, it’s all up in the air in the top three tiers with two more promotion places up for grabs, two Division One league final places and five relegated teams still to be confirmed.

With Wexford and Westmeath already in the Division Four final with a game to spare, there’s nothing to work out in the bottom tier so here’s exactly what needs to happen in the rest of the country for every eventuality to come through.

DIVISION THREE

Promoted: Louth.

Can still be promoted: Armagh, Tipperary.

Can still be relegated: Sligo, Longford, Laois, Antrim, Offaly.

Fixtures

Antrim v Longford
Louth v Sligo
Armagh v Tipperary
Offaly v Laois

Sligo are all but safe because of their superior score difference than everyone in the bottom five. The head-to-head rule only comes in when just two teams are level on points. With the remaining fixtures, it’s almost impossible that they would end up in the bottom two barring a final day miracle.

The bottom four teams are facing off in what is going to be a mouthwatering final-day shootout. If they all draw and Sligo lose, they will end up on the same amount of points with Sligo still presumably ahead because of their better score difference – unless Sligo are pummeled by Louth.

If two of them win, the other two will still be below Sligo.

Sligo will be relegated if:

Antrim draw with Longford AND Offaly draw with Laois AND Sligo are beaten by 15 points.
If Laois beat Offaly AND Antrim draw with Longford AND Sligo are beaten by 15 points.
If Antrim beat Longford (or vice versa) AND Laois draw with Offaly AND Sligo are beaten by 23 points.
If Laois beat Offaly (or vice versa) AND Longford draw with Antrim AND Sligo are beaten by 15 points.

It’s not going to happen.

If more than two teams are tied on points, score difference is taken into account and, where teams are tied on score difference, they are separated by how many scores they’ve actually scored throughout the league.

Offaly will be relegated if:

They lose.
They draw AND Antrim and Longford draw.
They draw AND Sligo achieve a better result to Louth than a 23-point loss.

Offaly will be safe if:

They win.
They draw AND Antrim v Longford isn’t a draw AND Sligo lose by 23 points.

Just win, lads. For our sakes.

Antrim will be relegated if:

They lose.
They draw AND Sligo achieve a better result than a 15-point defeat.

Antrim will be safe if:

They win.
They draw AND Sligo lose by 15 points to Louth.

Laois will be relegated if:

They lose.

Laois will be safe if:

They get a draw or better against Offaly.

Longford will be relegated if:

They lose.

Longford will be safe if:

They get a draw or better against Antrim.

If either of that bottom four lose in their matches on Sunday, they will be relegated to Division Four. If either of them win, they are safe. Two finals in their own right with it all on the line.

Further up the table, it’s a straight shootout between Armagh and Tipperary to join Louth in the league final and in Division Two next season. It’s a lot more simple to work out too.

Armagh will be promoted if:

They get a draw or better against Tipp.

Tipperary will be promoted if:

They beat Armagh.

Anything less than a win is no good for Liam Kearns’ men.

DIVISION TWO

Promoted: Kildare.

Can still be promoted: Galway, Meath.

Can still be relegated: Cork, Clare, Fermanagh, Down, Derry.

Fixtures

Galway v Kildare
Cork v Down
Clare v Meath
Fermanagh v Derry

It’s very unlikely that Cork will be relegated but the way the fixtures have panned out, it could still happen.

Cork will be relegated if:

Down beat Cork (by at least eight) AND Fermanagh beat Derry AND Clare draw with or beat Meath AND there’s a 28-point deficit swing between Cork’s loss and Fermanagh’s win over Derry.

Cork will be safe:

If even one of the above don’t pan out.
Cork draw or win their last game.

They’re fine. Don’t worry about it.

Clare will be relegated if:

They lose AND Down beat Cork AND Fermanagh don’t lose to Derry.
They draw AND Down beat Cork by 18 points AND Fermanagh beat Derry by 30 points.

Clare will be safe if:

They win.
They draw AND Down don’t win by 18 points AND Fermanagh don’t win by 30 points.
They lose AND Down get a draw or worse.

Fermanagh beat both Down and Clare so if it came down to a head-to-head with either, they’d be sitting pretty. If it came down to a three-way though, they wouldn’t be as comfortable because their score difference is at minus 30 right now.

Fermanagh will be relegated if:

They lose to Derry.
They draw and Down win.
Down win AND Fermanagh don’t win by more than 12 of what Down win by.

Fermanagh will be safe if:

They draw and Down don’t win.
They win and Down don’t win.
They win AND Clare lose AND Cork get a point.
They win AND Clare win AND Cork get a point.

Down will be relegated if:

They lose.
They draw and Fermanagh win.

Down will be safe if:

They win and Fermanagh don’t win by 12 more points than what they do.
They draw and Clare lose.

Derry will be relegated if:

They don’t win.
They win and Down get at least a draw.

Once more, at the top, it’s more plain sailing.

Kildare have already qualified for the Division Two final and won promotion to the top tier. Joining them will be one of two teams.

Meath beat Galway in their head-to-head meeting so if they were to join the Tribesmen on points, they’d qualify ahead of them.

Meath will be promoted if:

They beat Clare and Galway lose to Kildare.

Galway will be promoted if:

They draw or win.
Meath don’t win.

DIVISION ONE

Relegated: Roscommon.

Can still reach final: Dublin, Monaghan, Donegal, Tyrone, Mayo, Kerry.

Can still be relegated: Cavan, Kerry, Mayo.

Fixtures

Monaghan v Dublin
Mayo v Donegal
Kerry v Tyrone
Roscommon v Cavan

With so many teams so tight, the positions in Division One could change dramatically by the end of the last round of fixtures.

Once there are more than two teams joined on the same number of points, head-to-head records go out the window and it’s all down to score difference.

Score difference (after six games)

Dublin +40
Donegal +12
Monaghan +6
Tyrone +10
Mayo -5
Kerry +8
Cavan -20

Dublin will reach the final if:

They get at least a draw.
They lose AND Donegal don’t win AND Tyrone don’t mastermind a 30-point swing in their win over Mayo and Dublin’s loss to Monaghan.

Donegal will reach the final if:

They beat Mayo.
They draw and Monaghan don’t win.
They draw and Dublin lose by 33 points.
They lose AND Tyrone lose AND Monaghan lose BUT Kerry’s win over Tyrone and Donegal’s loss isn’t more than a four-point swing.

Monaghan will reach the final if:

They beat Dublin.
They draw AND Donegal lose AND Tyrone don’t win.

If Monaghan lose, they can’t make the final even if Donegal lose by more than them because either Tyrone, Kerry or – less likely – Mayo will move ahead of them in score difference.

Tyrone will reach the final if:

They win AND Donegal lose AND Monaghan don’t win.
They draw AND Monaghan lose AND Donegal lose by more than two points but not more than 15 points.

Then you have the likes of Kerry and Mayo who could either be in a Division One final or in Division Two by the end of Sunday.

Mayo will reach the final if:

They beat Donegal by nine points or more AND Tyrone and Kerry draw AND Monaghan lose by two or more.
They beat Donegal by 13 points more than Kerry beat Tyrone AND Monaghan lose.

Mayo will be relegated if:

They lose AND Cavan beat Roscommon AND Kerry don’t lose.
They lose AND Kerry lose AND Cavan’s win gives them a 15-point swing over Mayo’s loss.

Kerry will reach the final if:

They win AND Monaghan lose AND Donegal lose (with a four-point swing between Kerry and Donegal but Mayo don’t beat Donegal by over 13 points more than what Kerry win by).

Kerry will be relegated if:

They lose AND Cavan win AND both Mayo and Cavan have a 13-point and 28-point respective swing on Kerry’s scoring difference.
They lose AND Mayo don’t lose AND Cavan win and make up 28 points on the Kingdom.

Cavan will be safe if: