Looking forward to Dublin and Tyrone’s semi-final clash on Sunday we could go through various figures relating to attacking and defending, but the long and the short of it is this – we’re looking at two of the three stand-out potent attacks in this year’s championship, and the two statistically meanest defences also.
Despite that, there will be a niggling doubt that Tyrone, who haven’t beaten Dublin or Kerry in championship football since 2008, could crumble under a Dublin onslaught.
WHERE TYRONE COULD STRUGGLE
If Dublin are to blow Tyrone away, there is one key area where the Ulster men could fall apart. That is on their own long kick-out. In the day and age of the quick, short kick-out, Dublin have become exceptionally efficient at forcing their opposition to go long on theirs.
The slow and methodical manner in which they’ve come to frequently attack means that they have the men in place to push up man-on-man on the opposition kick-outs.
From 56 kick-outs, against Kerry in the league final and Kildare in the Leinster final, they forced the opposition long into the melting pot on 43, or 77 percent.
Dublin attack slowly
Taking 23 seconds to shoot
Meaning they’re man-on-man by the time they shoot
Forcing Tyrone long on the kick-out
You have to expect they’ll force Tyrone long into the melting pot on something similar to that 77 percent figure on Sunday. This alone could be Tyrone’s downfall.
All figures from both sides suggest that Tyrone should expect to win more than they lose here, but equally, all figures suggest that they could concede scores heavily on the ones they lose.
While Dublin scored 1-2 from the seven they won against Kildare and 0-6 from ten in last year’s semi-final with Kerry, Tyrone conceded 1-1 from the seven they lost against Donegal.
Assuming Dublin choke off Tyrone on the short kick-out, Tyrone are simply going to have win more than their fair share of their own long kick-outs. Alternatively, they’ll have smoother Dublin/get men behind the ball once they lose them.
Tyrone managed both of these things in the league game. It will be crucial for their chances that they manage both again on Sunday.
DUBLIN’S KICK-OUTS
If Tyrone are going to dictate the game, there is one area they need to and could well dominate. That is Dublin’s one significant potential Achilles. They lose a huge proportion of breaks on their own kick-outs.
Because they haven’t faced a side yet in this year’s championship who have stopped them from getting off the quick ones, we haven’t seen if they’ve remedied this problem since the league.
Against top six sides in the in the league, where the opposition forced them long on kick-outs, they lost 19/4 on breaks. Tyrone are meticulously set up in this regard.
Tyrone were systematically superior under breaks off Dublin’s kick-outs
And Kerry wiped them out in both league games
If Tyrone can force Dublin to go long, then they could dominate possession from this outlet and use it to springboard the victory.
If they don’t, it’s a double whammy. A) They allow Dublin the ball from where they’ve ravaged every defence they’ve faced this summer, even facing into blanket defences. B) Tyrone will spend the afternoon traipsing the length of the field to get behind the ball and will surely tire before the end.
How Tyrone cope with this really is the million-dollar question.
Force Dublin long and if they don’t win them cleanly, all patterns suggest that Tyrone could win 60/40 or even 70/30.
Allow Dublin to get them off quickly or short and they are deprived of this golden opportunity, and they’ll most likely be run into the ground by the hour mark.
IMPLICATIONS OF TYRONE’S SWEEPER
The key figure running against Tyrone regarding choking off short kick-outs is that even in their slaying of Donegal, Donegal successfully got off 14 of their 28 kick-outs, short.
This issue ties in with figures from their league clash with Dublin where Dublin successfully got off 15 from 21 quickly or short.
This is hardly surprising, considering the fact that Tyrone systematically hold Colm Cavanagh as a sitting sweeper.
Cavanagh holds the fort at the back
Of course, the issue, if there is one for Tyrone, hasn’t been their capacity to defend when they lose these short kick-outs. They conceded four points from 14 short kicks against Donegal in the league, but scored five on the first turnover, and they conceded just two from eleven against Dublin in the league, scoring two of their own upon the first turnover.
Even with Mark Bradley sent off in the 47th minute, they had held the Dubs to just five points in 60 minutes in the league. Make no mistake – this is the most efficient defence in the country, assuming they don’t run out of steam.
WILL TYRONE HAVE THE LEGS?
The more likely potential issue for Tyrone is this – if they defend in numbers and concede the quick kick-out to Dublin, they face the conundrum sides always face against Dublin if they don’t choke off the quick and/or short kick-out. Can they sustain 70 plus minutes counter-attacking and then traipsing the length of the field to get behind the ball on Dublin’s kick-outs?
Was it more to do with Mark Bradley being sent off or more to do with general fatigue that they conceded five points point in the last fifteen minutes (a point every three minutes) compared to five points in opening 60 odd minutes (a point every 12 minutes) in the league?
Did they let their foot off the gas with the game in the bag or did they run out of steam when their minute by minute score concession rate, once again, almost quadrupled late on against Down and Donegal combined?
All patterns suggest that if Tyrone are going to win, they’ll need to take a lead of at least two points into the 60th minute.
There is one possibility which could negate this.
TYRONE’S EDGE
Putting all broader patterns aside, there is one area where Tyrone can gain a few points.
When it comes to giving away unnecessary scoreable frees, patterns suggest that Tyrone should gain a few easy points over Dublin.
Excluding the latter stages of the Ulster Final against Down, when the referee appeared to give a few charitable frees, Tyrone’s meticulous defence have averaged no more than a single unnecessary scoreable free per game this summer (where no direct threat existed).
Dublin, on the other hand, had been averaging between four and five a game. Although they did appear to have kicked the habit against Monaghan, which is significant.
The potentially bigger significance than a net gain of three of three or four gifted frees, however, is this – in modern football, scores from frees are worth more!
Score from play and you can be hit on the counter-attack as soon as the ball is over the bar. Score from a free and you can set up to prevent the short kick-out before the free is kicked.
With Tyrone presumably maintaining Colm Cavanagh as a sitting sweeper, this becomes all the more significant in this game. Dublin will probably prevent Tyrone from getting off more than 25 percent short kick-outs anyway so it’s not so important at the far end.
Every score Tyrone kick from a free, however, will allow them to try to split Dublin’s defence on the re-start and perhaps force them long.
Tyrone are set to split 5 v 6 before the free is kicked
Forcing Cluxton long
Where Tyrone win it
And work the point
Not alone would this radically reduce their percentage chances of conceding the next score straight off the quick kick-out, but it would decrease the tempo of the game.
Every free kicked over, or even wide, by Tyrone will reduce the amount of time where they could be overrun late in the game.
CONCLUSION
If Tyrone can earn nine scoreable frees and score seven, and force Dublin long on every ensuing kick-out, where you’d expect Tyrone to mop up the breaks, I’d make it a 50/50 game. Every free above or below those figures of nine or seven and I’d add or take away a couple of percent.
Even by Dublin’s slightly worrisome standards, nine scoreable frees conceded would be significantly more than you’d expect, and looking at the Monaghan game, they may come in at less than half of this.
To that end, you have to fancy the Dubs. With their issues regarding winning breaks on their own long kick-outs, however, if they concede more than nine scoreable frees, Tyrone become favourites in my eyes.
Stephen O’Meara is creator and founder of www.gaaprostats.com, statistical and video analysis software created specifically for Gaelic football and hurling.
