By Saturday evening Republic of Ireland fans could have even more to be miserable about.
The disappointing 1-1 draw against Scotland last month is still fresh in fans’ minds, and missing out on the largest ever European Championships next summer is now a distinct possibility.
There’s also a lack of young players being developed, Irish sides exiting European competition and an ever decreasing Irish representation in the Premier League.
By 5pm on Saturday, we could potentially add a nightmare qualifying group for the 2018 World Cup to the list of Irish football woes.
Due to Ireland’s slide down the world rankings since Euro 2012, from 22 in 2011, to 67 last year and currently 52, the country will be seeded fourth.
It’s the first time since the 1982 World Cup qualifying that Ireland have been ranked so low in the seeding.
We’ve looked at Ireland’s best and worst case scenario qualifying group, as well as a potential outside chance.
The draw itself will be made in St Petersburg at at 4pm, and is live on RTE2.
First, here’s the 52 European teams, and the different pots they’ll be in for tomorrow’s draw. There’ll be nine groups, of which the eight best placed runners-up will go into a play-off.
- Germany, Belgium, Holland, Romania, England, Wales, Portugal, Spain, Croatia.
- Italy, Slovakia, Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia-Herzegovina.
- Poland, Ukraine, Scotland, Hungary, Sweden, Albania, Northern Ireland, Serbia, Greece.
- Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Estonia.
- Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova.
- Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra.
Let’s get the worst case scenario out of the way.
Worst Case Scenario:
- Spain
- France
- Ukraine
- Republic of Ireland
- Armenia
- Kazakhstan
If Ireland are drawn in this group, we better start looking ahead to the 2020 European Championships.
Despite a disappointing World Cup last summer, the retirement of great players and a recent slide down the world rankings, Spain are still a formidable side. One would imagine, in this scenario, France would challenge Spain for top spot, and would be confident of securing a play-off spot at least.
The stench from a disastrous few years, featuring a high-profile hand-ball, a World Cup meltdown and friction amongst the players, management and media, appears to have lifted.
Didier Deschamps’ side will host next summer’s European Championships, and have players such as Paul Pogba, Karim Benzema and Raphaël Varane.
Meanwhile, Ukraine may still be in political turmoil, and could need a play-off to qualify for Euro 2016, but they’re still a good technical side and have talented players such as Andriy Yarmolenko and Yevhen Konoplyanka.
The fifth seeds are Armenia, a side who were unlucky not to get a result against Ireland in Dublin back in 2011, and Kazakhstan are bottom seeds.
Ireland should gain six points against the central-Asian country, but would rather avoid the long trip to Astana, and playing on a artificial pitch.
Kevin Doyle’s late winner spared Ireland’s blushes against Kazakhstan back in 2012.
Best case scenario:
- Wales
- Bosnia
- Northern Ireland
- Republic of Ireland
- Latvia
There’ll be seven groups of six, and two groups of five, in the Uefa qualifying section. The European football governing body has requested that England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands are drawn in a six team group because of broadcasting deals.
Ireland would gladly take this five team group.
Wales are currently 10th in the world rankings, ahead of Spain, who’ve won three of the last four international tournaments, look certain to qualify for Euro 2016 and have players such as Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, but Ireland shouldn’t fear our Celtic cousins.
Yes, Bale is capable of winning a game with a moment of magic, but there’s only so many times the Real Madrid forward can cover for players such as Hal Robson-Kanu and Andy King.
A trip to Cardiff or Swansea is also a lot more attractive than a difficult away jaunt to Romania or Croatia.
Bosnia-Herzegovina would represent a tricky away fixture, and the Balkan side have some talented players, such Asmir Begovic, Miralem Pjanić and Edin Dzeko.
However, Bosnia have struggled badly in their Euro 2016 group, sitting in fifth position, with eight points behind Cyprus, Israel, Belgium and Wales. Ireland also won 1-0 against Bosnia the last time the two sides played each other, back in 2012.
That doesn’t count for much, but we’re trying (desperately) to be optimistic.
Such blind optimism isn’t necessary for the third seeds in this scenario. Northern Ireland have had an excellent Euro 2016 qualifying campaign so far, and it seems as though Michael O’Neill is extracting the maximum from a largely limited squad.
O’Neill’s side are currently second in their qualifying group, with 13 points, one point behind Romania, and two ahead of Hungary.
However, without seeking to lessen their achievements, Northern Ireland were blessed with a favourable draw. Top seeds Greece have been awful, and are currently bottom with two points, while Romania and Hungary are around the same level as Poland and Scotland, if not lesser sides.
Potential games against Northern Ireland would, most likely, be heated, tense and scrappy affairs, but more favourable to Martin O’Neill’s side than two games against Poland or Sweden.
The fifth seeds in this scenario are Latvia, as there’s little between the teams in this pot in terms of quality, and Ireland won 5-1 on aggregate the last time they played a side from the Baltic region.
Again, that counts for little, but we’re being optimistic and it’d be better than potentially having another Macedonia.
Outside chance:
- England
- Slovakia
- Albania
- Republic of Ireland
- Cyprus
- Malta
We’ve looked at the worst and best case scenarios, and finally we’re looking at a group scenario that would give Ireland an outside chance at qualification. Maybe.
Firstly, although England always qualify for tournaments, and possess a deeper playing pool than Ireland, fans would undoubtedly like to finally see another competitive game between the sides. Ireland also haven’t lost to the Three Lions since 1985.
In second place, Slovakia, although top of their Euro 2016 qualifying group, aren’t, like ourselves, exactly world beaters. And Albania are currently third in their five team qualifying group.
Ireland have had tough trips to Cyprus in the past, but, again, O’Neill, should he still be in charge, wouldn’t have too many complaints should we be drawn alongside them.
While Malta would be a nice trip for travelling Irish fans, and a handy six points.
However, judging on recent form, Ireland will have to greatly improve to reach the 2018 World regardless of the draw we get tomorrow.
Don’t book the flights to Yekaterinburg just yet.
