There’s still a chance we could finish top of the group – a very unlikely chance but a chance nonetheless.
It all comes back to the fact that we should’ve just beaten f**king Georgia.
Well, Georgia could yet do Ireland a favour because the first, second and third spots in Group D are still to be decided after the penultimate round of fixtures made it so.
Serbia had an opportunity to qualify for the 2018 World Cup on Friday night but an 89th minute winner from Austria in Vienna sees the group go the whole way to the wire now and leaves everything on the line on Monday.
Thanks to Scotland’s result, Ireland could also be heading to Cardiff knowing that a win will secure at least a playoff spot but they still need something to work out for them in an another group for that to happen.
As it transpires though, they still have an outside bet of automatic qualification. A very long outside bet at that.
Group D results
- Ireland 2-0 Moldova
- Georgia 0-1 Wales
- Austria 3-2 Serbia
Whatever way those game worked out on Friday, Ireland were still always going to need three points in Wales but there’s an incentive to do that as comprehensively as possible.
They’re two points behind Serbia with one game remaining but the fixtures are stacked in the leaders’ favour.
Group D final-day fixtures
- Wales v Ireland
- Serbia v Georgia
- Moldova v Austria
Goal difference counts for more than head-to-head in the World Cup qualifying so Ireland will need a five-goal triumph (unless they put eight past Wales – in that case, they’ll need to win by just four) to top the group and Serbia draw. So if they beat Wales by five and Serbia draw, Ireland top the group.
If Serbia lose to Georgia and Ireland beat Wales, Ireland are through.
It’s probably not going to happen.
We’ll take our chances elsewhere.
Second-place table
If Ireland beat Wales, they’ll have 13 points in this ranking system for the playoffs.
Everyone else can better that total at the time of writing so Martin O’Neill will need a few favours. He could well get them though.
Here are some ways Ireland can reach the playoffs (granted they beat Wales) and here are the fixtures we should be looking at over the next few days.
Group F
If Scotland don’t beat Slovenia, a win for Ireland would see them in the playoffs – regardless if Slovakia displace Scotland in second place in that group or not.
- Slovenia v Scotland (Sunday)
Group I
Croatia and Ukraine are deadlocked on points and joint in second place. A draw would see Croatia finish with 12 points – which Ireland can overtake with one more win.
- Croatia v Ukraine (Monday)
Group A
This group is a lot more up in the air because there are two games left, four different teams who can finish second and two different teams who can finish bottom – which would change the points of the second-place table.
Sweden are in second at the moment with the possibility of hitting 16 points in the second-place ranking.
- Sweden v Luxembourg (Saturday)
- Belarus v Netherlands (Saturday)
- Bulgaria v France (Saturday)
- France v Belarus (Tuesday)
- Luxembourg v Bulgaria (Tuesday)
- Netherlands v Sweden (Tuesday)
Group H
Bosnia and Greece are chasing second spot with the Greeks a point adrift at present. Belgium have already topped the group and qualified but this pair could still drop points and thus, help Ireland’s cause.
- Bosnia v Belgium (Saturday)
- Cyprus v Greece (Saturday)
- Estonia v Bosnia (Tuesday)
- Greece v Gibraltar (Tuesday)
The most important thing is for Ireland to beat bloody Wales first.
