Bollocks anyway.
Sure it wouldn’t be Irish if we didn’t immediately look for the dark cloud amidst that silver lining.
Yes, we’re in a great position compared to where we were back in June and, yes, we’re happy to still be in the reckoning but a play-off spot doesn’t bring with it any great news or hope.
Because the chances are that Ireland won’t be seeded for a play-off spot if they were to finish third in Group D – even though they currently are one of the seeded teams in that bunch.
Best third-placed team…
First off, we can forget about automatic qualification from third. Here are the teams that occupy that position in their respective pools.
Some groups consists of five teams, so the results against the sixth seeded teams – Gibraltar in our case – aren’t taken into account.
We have a game in hand over Ukraine, Hungary and Croatia but we’d very, very possibly need to accrue six points against Poland and Germany and that still might not be enough.
Ukraine play Spain at home – okay. But Hungary will fancy their chances against Greece whilst Croatia won’t exactly be cowering from Malta. In the extreme off-chance that we did get two wins in our last two games, we still shouldn’t top this table anyway.
Current seeding…
At the moment, we’re in a good position with the seeding. Just about.
Because one third-place team will automatically qualify for the Euros, Ireland are currently in position to be a seeded team for the play-offs.
Teams are seeded based on the UEFA national team co-efficient ranking which, as above, is up to date as of June (it will be updated again before the play-off draw). And we’re currently in the top five rankings of all the teams in third place.
If all of the above teams maintained their third-place status, Ireland should be seeded and would face either Slovenia, Turkey, Israel or Albania in a two legged play-off to qualify for France (games to be played between 12-14 of November and 15-17 November).
The problem…
If one of those four non-seeded teams were to fall out of the reckoning in their respective groups, Ireland are in trouble.
And there are three of those teams who look like they could let us down. And three higher-ranked teams that could come in.
If a higher ranked team than us comes in for a non-seeded side, we’d be bumped down.
Holland (ranked 4th) are obviously our biggest threat. Their 3-0 humbling in Turkey hasn’t knocked them off the scent too much and they’ll fancy their chances in the run-in.
Whereas the Dutch are away to Kazakhstan before hosting an already-qualified Czech Republic in their final game, Turkey have both the top two teams in the group to face. They’re away to Czech firstly before welcoming Iceland. Both Turkey and Holland’s last game could be dependent on the mood of the team they face.
Holland do need at least three more points than Turkey in the final two games but the fixtures are in their favour, you’d think.
That’s just the first of them.
Bosnia and Herzegovina (ranked 19th) are just two points behind Israel as well. Israel have to go away to Belgium in their last game after hosting Cyrpus whilst the Bosnians are at home to Wales before a trip to Cyprus. Again, it’s tight. Again, the fixtures are slightly in favour of the fourth-placed team.
There’s more.
The biggest concern…
Albania’s rise is worrying. They are probably the most likely to upset us. They’re just one point behind Denmark (ranked 18th) with a game in hand.
Denmark have one more match to play, away to table-toppers Portugal of course. Meanwhile, Albania have the luxury of pitting their wits against lowly Serbia and Armenia.
If it came to head-to-head, Albania and Denmark drew both of their games but Albania already have the same goal difference as the Danes and you’d fancy that to better with the game in hand and the more favourable fixtures. If they even needed it.
Four points should guarantee Albania a second place spot (they might not even need that many) and that means Denmark would slip to third and, being ranked higher than Ireland, they would shoulder us out of the seeded play-off spots.
Right now, we’re in place to be seeded but there are far too many outs to think that will still be the case come two games’ time. We’d have gotten really lucky to maintain that status come Sunday.
In summary:
If even one of these things happen, we’re out of the seeded positions.
- Holland take over Turkey into third.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina take over Israel into third.
- Albania take over Denmark into second.
If Ireland weren’t seeded, the most likely of the seeded sides they would face in a play-off would be: Croatia, Sweden, Hungary or Denmark.
Not the end of the world but, if Holland or Bosnia made their way to third, those seeded teams get a hell of a lot stronger.
We do have one lifeline with Montenegro chasing Sweden in Group G.
They’re ranked below us and just one point behind Sweden who are ranked above us so it would move Ireland up in the seeds if the Swedes were to fall out.
Don’t get your hopes up. Montenegro play Austria and Russia next. Sweden play Moldova and Liechtenstein.
And not even Russia being dragged into third would be any use to Ireland. They’re ranked 20th (three above Ireland) in UEFA’s coefficient.
Maybe we really should just go for second place.
