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Published 14:22 6 Jan 2023 GMT
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But the computer says that Pep Guardiola's side have a 50 per cent chance of becoming champions for a third year in a row while Arsenal only stand a 42 per cent chance.
Manchester United's form under Erik ten Hag has drastically improved also but although they are showing signs of life there's not much optimism that they will be lifting the title in May and have only been given a three per cent chance.
Newcastle United and Liverpool are also outsiders at two per cent however both are given a strong chance of finishing inside the top four.
Eddie Howe's side have been given a 49 per cent chance while Liverpool are one behind with a 48 per cent chance. United are the most likely at 59 whereas the current top two have an almost 100 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
For those at the bottom of the table, fans of Southampton, Bournemouth and Everton might want to look away as they are predicted to be in the bottom three.
Wolves, Nottingham Forest, West Ham, Leeds United and Leicester City fans should also have some concerns as they are also in the mix of sides that could face the drop.
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