Hope springs eternal.
The chances are, Ireland probably won’t qualify for the European Championships in 2016 and we’ll be sat at home watching Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and even England taking up space in France.
But that draw against Scotland back in June, whilst a huge blow, isn’t fatal and Martin O’Neill is actually right when he bellied afterwards that Ireland are not out of this fight.
“We are still in the group,” the manager said post Scotland. “This is not just fighting bravado talk, we are still well in the group. We have two games in September, we’re going to take those and see where it leads us by the time we come into the Germany game.”
Here we are. Fighting for our lives now in what is going to be a huge week.
The next two fixtures are absolutely crucial for the Irish who sit perilously outside of the third place playoff spot at the moment.
It doesn’t look too good.
But, whilst the Scots and the Irish must face the same four teams in their run-in, Martin O’Neill has a slight advantage in that they take on the two most favourable of those fixtures in September.
If Ireland take care of Gibraltar and then Georgia at home this Friday and Monday – which won’t be without complications – they will go into October ahead of Scotland. Yes, with worse fixtures to play, but still ahead and knowing what they need to do.
Scotland are away to Georgia on Friday whilst the Republic have a gimme against Gibraltar.
Georgia could be key for the Irish. We needed a last-gasp moment of absolute magic to get out of there with three points and they even had Poland scoreless for over an hour before a screamer finally broke their resistance and then Lewandowski scored a hat-trick in injury time.
Georgia will worry Gordon Strachan.
THE IDEAL OUTCOME
Ireland win their next two games.
Scotland draw and lose.
Assuming the world champions will have gotten their act together and just start dominating the rest of the group, Scotland will lose to the Germans and, in a lovely, perfect world, they’ll be held by Georgia.
Ireland, meanwhile, can capitalise with two wins from their next two games.
EVEN MORE IDEAL
Ireland draw with Germany.
Scotland lose to Poland.
Ireland are through! With a game to spare. (Through to the playoffs that is – unless they’re the best placed third place team, which is highly unlikely)
But that rests on hoping Scotland muster just one point from their next three games and Ireland manage a draw against Germany again – as well as winning two games before that. That rests on a lot really.
So here’s what will probably happen.
REALISTICALLY
Ireland win their next two games.
Scotland beat Georgia and lose to Germany.
We’re still ahead going into October, we know what we need to do to reach the playoffs and there’s a bit of a buzz back around the place.
A draw against Germany and Poland in our final games (extremely hopeful anyway) wouldn’t even be enough because Scotland would beat Gibraltar to join us on 17 points (at least) and trump us in the head-to-head reckoning.
REALISTICALLY
Scotland do what they have to do and draw with Poland after beating Georgia.
Ireland lose to Germany.
Going into the last game, we’re still in it.
Granted, we’d have to beat Poland in Warsaw but we’re still in it. We are still in it.
If Ireland beat Poland, they’re level with them on points and ahead of them on head-to-head but, you know, it depends on Ireland beating Poland, which is exactly the scenario we need to avoid.
We need to avoid having to get a result against anyone to get through…
However, if Georgia do us a favour against the Scots, the whole thing is blown wide open and it depends on the Germans just going and dominating from here in.
If they do though, the Scotland-Poland clash is ideal for Ireland because, regardless of the outcome, one of them will be dragged in. We’ll still need to pull off a result in the playoffs which will sink hearts around the country.
But the team need to get through Georgia and Gibraltar though to have that outside chance in October.
And we need to root for Germany to be Germany once again and, even more hopefully, pray for Georgia on Friday.
