The bad news is, we’ll still have to beat Wales.
Thursday night’s results didn’t leave anything in Ireland’s hands in terms of securing a playoff spot but they did offer us another potential out.
To qualify for a playoff spot for the 2018 World Cup, Ireland must firstly finish in second place in their own group.
But even if Wales balls up against Georgia on Friday, the Republic will still likely need a victory in Cardiff because Group D is not sitting pretty in terms of rankings for playoff spots right now.
The results against the team who finishes bottom of your group are not counted in this table which seeks to find the eight best second-place finishers and therefore, if Moldova finish bottom of Ireland’s group, the Republic’s results against them will be ignored (if Ireland come second).
That means, right now, Ireland would be on 10 points in this table with just a +1 goal difference.
It also means, if Moldova finish bottom, they only have one game left to be counted in that table (against Wales).
And it means that Bosnia (or Greece in the same group) and Sweden can take over Ireland and also leave them outside the seeded 8 where Wales currently lie.
Scotland beating Slovakia has changed the outlook a little though.
Chris Martin’s 89th minute winner for the Scots mean that Gordan Strachan’s men displace the Slovakians in second place with just one game remaining.
So, with just one game left to be tallied for the race for second-place playoff spots, Scotland are just one point clear of Ireland. They’re on 11, Ireland are on 10.
The remaining, relevant fixtures which currently count for the second-place table for these two countries are:
- Slovenia v Scotland (Sunday)
- Wales v Ireland (Monday)
If Scotland don’t beat Slovenia on Sunday and Ireland win their next two games, Ireland will be guaranteed a second-place playoff spot.
This is because a draw for Scotland or a loss for Scotland could see Ireland leapfrog their points total in the second-place table.
It also means now that, even if Slovakia beat Malta (which they will) and overtake Scotland once more into second spot in that group, they can now only finish with 12 points in the second-place table. Ireland can finish with 13.
So if Scotland don’t win on Sunday and Ireland win on Friday, it’s in Ireland’s hands.
But then they’d have to go and beat Wales and that’s a whole other problem.
Wales not beating Georgia doesn’t really change Ireland’s need for a win in Wales – all it does is allow Ireland to slip up against Moldova at the same time because results against Moldova won’t count in the final table for second-place teams.
