How Ireland can qualify for 2026 World Cup even if they lose twice to Portugal

We'll get grief for saying this, but stranger things have happened in football

The obituary for Ireland’s World Cup campaign was being written at half time on the first match day while 2-0 down to Hungary. It was put back into drafts following an unlikely 2–2 draw, but quickly picked back up.

The 2-1 defeat by Armenia was disastrous in more ways than one. Ireland were out-thought and out-fought in every area against the team ranked 105th in the world, 45 places below the Boys in Green.

Although qualification is mathematically still possible, the manner of the defeat said everything, and had fans, commentators and pundits writing off even the slightest possibility of a turnaround. Even the manager said they needed a miracle. There is no hope, essentially.

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But hold on a minute. Every single player, bar the goalkeeper, under-performed in Yerevan, for whatever reason. Football is a funny old game, and performances fluctuate like the Irish weather.

Ireland's players used to over-perform. Now they under-perform. It's a trend we're becoming used to, but it has to end somewhere. Whether that's with a change of manager, or hitting rock bottom, Ireland won't under-perform forever.

If - and it’s a big if - we see even a slightly above par performance from Ireland in the remaining four games, and only TWO against-the-tide results occur from eight games in Group F, qualification is still possible.

What’s that noise? Oh, it’s just us battening down the hatches for this shout. Ahem. Here is…. how Ireland can qualify for the World Cup.

A couple lazy assumptions dissected

There were two qualification narratives coming out of the Armenia defeat. 1) Hungary will destroy Armenia in Yerevan. And 2) Ireland need to beat Portugal away. Neither are correct.

Armenia proved they can over-perform and cause major problems in that Yerevan cauldron. Much weirder things have happened in football than Armenia beating Hungary, who proved at the Aviva they are prone to shooting themselves in the foot in the same style as Ireland.

Secondly, Ireland can afford to lose not just once, but twice to Portugal - and get absolutely annihilated in the process - and still qualify.

That’s because Hungary’s late defeat by Portugal on match day 2 has kept hope up for the small percentage of glass-half-full Irish fans.

Here’s what needs to happen in World Cup Qualifying Group F.

Matchday 3 and 4 outcomes: The easy bit

Hungary beat Armenia in Budapest on October 11, while Portugal beat Ireland on the same evening in Lisbon.

Two expected results, then.

On October 14, Ireland need to beat Armenia in Dublin. They will be favourites, despite October's disasterclass, and will have a camp desperate to bite back at their critics. Meanwhile, Portugal need to beat Hungary in Lisbon.

Again, an expected set of results.

That would leave:

• Portugal on 12 points
• Ireland on 4 points and Hungary on 4 points
• Armenia on 3 points

Matchday 5 outcomes: OK, let's say a prayer

On November 13, Hungary go to Armenia. This is the first of the two results in this scenario which need to go against the tide. If Armenia beat Hungary in Yerevan, Ireland’s door opens. Ireland play Portugal that evening in Dublin, and can, and likely will, lose.

With one game to go, that would leave it at:

• Portugal on 15 points
• Armenia on 6 points
• Hungary on 4 points
• Ireland on 4 points

Matchday 6 outcomes: The nation is gripped

Then we get to the final matchday, November 16, and the second of the two matches that need to go against the tide. Ireland need to go to Hungary and win. Again, much stranger things have happened in football, and Ireland are arguably better stylistically as the underdog.

Stars would have to align in terms of Ireland’s Premier League stars looking like half-decent Premier League players, but if you're telling me that's impossible, what's the point in following football? We dream. Oh, and Troy Parrott should be back by then.

Meanwhile, Portugal host Armenia and will be overwhelming favourites to win handsomely.

That would leave the final table at (and remember 2nd place makes the play-off):

• Portugal on 18 points
• Ireland on 7 points
• Armenia on 6 points
• Hungary on 4 points

Even if Ireland pick up a single point against Portugal in their two games, they could even afford a draw in Hungary, so long as their goal difference is larger than Armenia’s. With both sides playing Portugal twice still to come, that’s a possibility. That would mean:

• Portugal on 16 points
• Ireland on 6 points and Armenia on 6 points
• Hungary on 5 points

So there you have it, Ireland in a World Cup Qualifying play-off in March with only two against-the-tide results.

OK, we haven't even got onto the likelihood of Ireland winning two play-off matches against strong opposition, but the country will be so swept up in the positive emotion, we'll be willing to take on anybody.

Now we’re off to do the lotto.