Ireland will finish at least third if they beat Italy.
It’s not all lost after Saturday’s 3-0 loss to Belgium and, actually, there are still a number of ways Martin O’Neill’s men can advance if they win on Wednesday.
But they need to win to have a chance of getting through their group. A draw will not do.
TO FINISH SECOND
For Ireland to finish second, Sweden need to beat Belgium and Ireland need to beat Italy by two more goals than Sweden’s win.
On top of that, they also have to score more than Sweden do or they can just beat Italy by three more goals than Sweden beat Belgium by.
E.G: If Sweden win 4-3, then Ireland need to win 4-0 or 5-2.
Seems fairly unlikely but Martin O’Neill can rest easy knowing a win on Wednesday will at least see the Republic finish in third place in Group E. Whether or not that is enough to see them through as four of the best third-placed teams relies on a number of things.
TO QUALIFY THROUGH THIRD
For Ireland to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams, they need to win their last game and they need two of the groups to finish with one of the following outcomes.
GROUP A
Albania beat Romania.
Albania and Romania draw.
Ireland beat Italy by three more goals than Romania win by.
Romania win but France beat Switzerland and there is a goal difference swing of four (Ireland win by two, Switzerland lose by two).
GROUP B
England beat Slovakia – this would render the Wales and Russia game irrelevant because third place will finish with three points.
England and Wales draw their respective games, Ireland win by four.
England lose, Wales and Russia draw, Ireland win by four.
England lose, Russia win, Ireland win by three more goals than Russia do or there is a four-goal swing in Ireland’s win and England’s loss, depending on how Russia and England’s goal difference ends up.
GROUP C
Germany beat Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland draw, Ireland win by five.
Northern Ireland beat Germany, Poland get a result, and there’s a six-goal swing between Germany’s loss and Ireland’s win.
GROUP D
Turkey get a result against Czech Republic (win or draw).
Czech Republic beat Turkey but Ireland win by three more than them.
Czech Republic win but Croatia lose to Spain and there’s a four-goal swing between Ireland’s win and Croatia’s loss.
GROUP F
Hungary win or draw.
Portugal win and Austria v Iceland finishes in draw.
Portugal win, Austria win and Ireland win by one more goal than Austria.
Portugal win, Iceland win and there is a five-goal swing between the Ireland win and the Hungary defeat.
To keep it simple and to accept that we’re hamstrung by our goal difference, here is what Ireland need to happen to qualify for the second round:
Ireland to win
And two of the following to happen:
- Albania to win/draw
- England to win
- Germany to win
- Turkey to win/draw
- Hungary to win/draw
