Four points clear, one result away from a guaranteed playoff spot.
We would’ve taken that back in June when we were held by the Scots at the Aviva and our destiny was out of our hands.
The Republic of Ireland face off with Germany (h) and Poland (a) on Thursday and Sunday whilst our biggest threat to qualifying for France, Scotland, take on Poland (h) and Gibraltar (a irrelevant).
There are a number of ways that this tight group could pan out and there could yet be another twist or turn in the run-in so here’s how it could all go down this week.
At the moment, without looking at the fixtures, things look pretty rosy for Martin O’Neill.
But there are a number of eventualities that could affect the state of play.
Ireland lose to Germany.
Scotland lose to Poland.
We’re guaranteed third place before we even head for Warsaw. Would you just take this now and not risk going into the last game needing a result?
BUT…
Ireland lose to Germany.
Scotland beat Poland.
A result for Scotland could actually be good news for the Republic. Yes, we’d be under pressure going in to Sunday – especially considering Scotland are guaranteed three more points in Gibraltar – but we also have a chance of automatic qualification.
But we’d need to beat Poland. And we don’t beat teams. We draw with teams.
Ireland draw with Poland.
Scotland beat Gibraltar.
Our draws would have finally caught up with us.
Ireland lose to Germany.
Scotland draw with Poland.
This wouldn’t be great because, again, Scotland are guaranteed points. It means we can advance with less points though. However, if we were to somehow draw with Germany again whilst the other pair drew as well, that would be the dream outcome.
We’d be four clear of Scotland and have a bonus game against Poland to try and snatch second place off of them. We’d have nothing to lose.
If we were beaten by Germany though and Scotland got a point at home to Poland, we’d need a result in the last game owing to the fact that drawing level with the Scots on points would give them the advantage (because of their head-to-head result against us).
This is how it would look.
Scotland draw with Poland.
Ireland lose to Germany.
Scotland beat Gibraltar.
A win against Poland would put Ireland in second place. A loss against Poland wouldn’t even allow them a playoff spot.
Now’s the time for a nice diplomatic draw. But even third place doesn’t look all that good because we probably wouldn’t be seeded.
