Yes, coming second is the most important basic for Ireland to focus on but achieving that with anything but a win in Cardiff will all but destroy their World Cup hopes.
Irish fans keenly observed the Welsh game in Georgia on Friday night with a hope that their Irish Sea neighbours would provide a timely cock-up and the goalless first half provided joy.
But that hope of Wales messing up in Tibilisi doesn’t help Ireland – not in their search for a playoff spot. They’d still need the three points in Wales.
If Wales failed to beat Georgia, the only way that would help the Republic is that it would mean they wouldn’t have to beat Moldova on the same night. If they failed to beat Moldova after Wales failed to beat Georgia, their second place hopes would still be alive in that case and their result against Moldova wouldn’t be counted in the best second-place table anyway.
Before the Georgia-Wales game, the table to decipher the eight playoff teams looked like this.
Ireland are currently on 10 points in that standing but have just one more game to play (eight games are calculated).
The maximum they could reach is therefore 13 and they can only do that with a win in Wales whilst every other second-place team in every other group have a chance to amass and better that total and, thus, Ireland wouldn’t get a playoff spot anyway.
So even if Wales draw with Georgia and Ireland overtake them into second place with a win over Moldova, Ireland would still have just 10 points in that second-place table.
A draw with Wales to cement second wouldn’t be enough because eight other teams will finish with 11 or more points in that same table and they will be the eight playoff teams.
Ireland must beat Wales regardless, get to 13 points, and hope someone else cocks up to assure a playoff spot.
Otherwise second place in the group is pointless.
