The Republic of Ireland are just two results away securing at least a play-off spot in Group D.
After a tense and dull 90 minutes, with flashes of quality in the second half, Martin O’Neill’s side gained a priceless three points to move further ahead of Scotland in third place.
However, it could’ve been very different.
Germany and Scotland played out a frantic game at Hampden Park, with the world champions prevailing 3-2.
If Scotland had have got something from that game, and Ireland had failed to break down Georgia, as it looked likely for most of tonight’s match, then it could’ve been a very different scenario in the final two games of the group.
Here’s how the group currently stands:
Germany take their rightful place at the top of the group with 19 points, Poland, following their 8-1 trashing of Gibraltar, retain second place on 17 points, while Ireland tighten their grip over third spot with 15 points.
Scotland are in serious danger of being cut adrift with 11 points from eight games.
Here’s the next round of fixtures:
Ireland host Germany at the Aviva, but the crucial game of the night will be at Hampden Park.
If Scotland lose to Poland, Ireland will be guaranteed at least third spot, and a place in the play-offs, regardless of the result against Germany.
However, the Scots gave the world champions a fright earlier tonight, and will be going all out for a win against second place Poland, who didn’t exactly look like world beaters when they played at the Aviva back in March.
Let’s say, as has been mostly the case in games between Ireland, Scotland and Poland, the game ends in a draw, and Ireland lose to Germany, here’s how the group will look.
And here’s the final set of fixtures in Group D:
Scotland will beat Gibraltar, giving them 15 points, meaning Ireland will have to get at least a point against Poland in Warsaw to secure third spot, due to Scotland’s superior record in the game’s involving Ireland.
However, if Ireland were to win against Poland, they would move into second and automatically qualify for Euro 2016.
If though, O’Neill’s go into a play-off, they will, as it currently stands, be seeded for the draw. The seeding is based on Uefa’s coefficients rankings, with the four higher ranking teams being seeded for October’s draw.
Here’s the side’s currently in third place in their respective groups:
- Croatia
- Ukraine
- Albania
- Hungary
- Russia
- Israel
- Republic of Ireland
- Turkey
- Estonia
As the best third placed team Croatia will automatically qualify for Euro 2016.
(This is based on a team’s results against every team in their respective group, other than the results against the bottom placed side.)
So, as it currently stands, Ukraine, Russia, Hungary and Ireland will be seeded for the play-off draw, with Turkey, Estonia, Albania and Israel the non-seeded teams.
However, the play-off picture, like the group tables, are, of course, open to change.
FIFA rank Ireland as 31st in Europe. Uefa coefficient table had us in June at 23rd, last 2 games thought to have moved us up to 21st 1/2
— Neil O'Riordan (@noriordan) September 8, 2015
which is why we are in with a decent shout of being seeded if we qualify for play-offs because it's Uefa coefficient used for seedings 2/2
— Neil O'Riordan (@noriordan) September 8, 2015
What is for certain though is that Ireland have control over third spot in Group D.
