Here’s what Ireland have to do to qualify for Euro 2016

Third spot is in Ireland's hands... kind of

Robert Redmond

Here’s what Ireland have to do to qualify for Euro 2016

It turns out that it really is better to be lucky than good.

Scotland have messed up against Georgia, losing 1-0 to the side second bottom in Group D, and ceding control over third spot and a play-off for Euro 2016.

Despite losing 1-0 to Scotland in Celtic Park last November, and the disappointing 1-1 draw at the Aviva between the sides in June, Ireland are in now contention to finish above Gordon Strachan’s team and claim a play-off spot.

Here’s the group following tonight’s fixtures.

Germany have moved above Poland into top spot, while Ireland have gone ahead of Scotland into third.

On Monday, Ireland host Georgia, Germany visit Scotland and Poland play Gibraltar.

Given Germany are world champions, Scotland have just lost to the ranked 147 in the world, whom are unlikely to record two positives results in a row, here’s how the group should look following Monday’s fixtures.

Germany have tightened their grip on top spot with 19 points, Poland are still in second with 17 points, while Ireland, having recorded a scrappy, nervy win over Georgia at the Aviva (hopefully), have moved further ahead of Scotland and sit in third spot with 15 points.

Scotland, meanwhile, after their disastrous loss to Georgia, and inevitable defeat to Germany, have 11 points.

Here’s the next set of fixtures, to be played next month. (All times are European Central Time, and one hour ahead of Ireland and Scotland).

Ireland host Germany on the same night Scotland face Poland, in what will be a must win game for the Scots.

Barring another John O’Shea-esque moment, and improbable equaliser, the mighty Germans should beat Ireland. However, this game is something of a free hit for O’Neill’s side, should Poland get something from the game against Scotland.

If Poland win, Ireland will be guaranteed third-spot, but a draw can still be a positive result.

Considering the other games in the group between Ireland, Scotland and Poland have mostly ended in a draw, this seems the most likely result.

Here’s how the group will look if the game between Scotland and Poland ends in a draw, and Germany beat Ireland at the Aviva:

Germany move to 22 points, Poland remain in the second, automatic qualification spot, with 18 points, Ireland still have 15 points and Scotland are in fourth with 12 points.

Here’s the final set of fixtures, this is where it gets tricky.

Germany are out of sight, and will record a comfortable victory over Georgia. Scotland are guaranteed to beat Gibraltar, giving them 15 points and drawing level on points with Ireland, who travel to Warsaw.

Should Ireland finish on level points with Scotland, the Scots will advance ahead of O’Neill’s side, due to their superior record between the sides.

Which means Ireland, if these permutations come to fruition, must get at least a point from the game in Warsaw next month.The good news is that Poland should have secured second spot by then, the bad news being, well, this is Ireland and our record against sides ranked above us is desperate.