This looks to be a defining game for the Irish team.
Beat Poland on Sunday, and Ireland could be on course for automatic qualification for Euro 2016. A draw leaves the team with the chance of a play-off place but if we lose the campaign may already be over, and the future of the managerial team will come under serious scrutiny.
There’s a argument that Martin O’Neill got his formation wrong in the games against Germany and Scotland, and the Irish manager can’t afford to do so again.
Here’s five key areas the manager needs to get right in the game against Poland:
1. Unleash Seamus Coleman
One of the many frustrating aspects of Ireland’s disappointing loss to Scotland last October was Seamus Coleman’s stunted role. The full-back was pinned into his own half, focused more on his opposing winger than operating to his usual attacking strengths.
Everton, admittedly, play an entirely different system to Ireland, one designed to exploit their attacking full-backs, however, Martin O’Neill needs to allow Coleman off the leash to a greater degree than in previous games.
Coleman’s best deployed as an attacking full-back. He’s fast, athletic, comfortable linking up with his team-mates, possesses boundless stamina and has the ability to get into the opposition penalty area.
Last season the Donegal native was the best right-full back in the Premier League. He created 43 chances for his team-mates, two of which led to goals, and had the most dribbles per defender in the division. Coleman was also the second highest scoring defender with six goals. This year he’s got five goals and two assists, and comes into Sunday’s game against Poland in good form.
However, none of his attacking qualities were on show in the performance against Scotland. O’Neill needs to allow Coleman to flourish. The likely central midfield partnership, James McCarthy and Glenn Whelan, are capable of covering for the defender and Poland look vulnerable in full-back areas.
Something O’Neill should look to further exploit.
2. Joy on the wings
Poland will be missing both their first choice full-backs for Sunday’s game. Artur Jedrzejczyk and Borussia Dortmund right-back Lukasz Piszczek are injured, so Paweł Olkowski will likely take his place, with Jakub Wawrzyniak likely to line-up at left back. Ireland’s relative strength in wide areas make this one of the areas the team can exploit.
If O’Neill deploys Aiden McGeady on the right, and James McClean from the left, the two should have enough to cause the Polish pair problems, despite their indifferent club form.
McGeady showed his match winning capability against Georgia and, if he plays wide-right and drifts inside, it’d afford Coleman the chance to push on and could cause the 31 year old Wawrzyniak problems. Particularly if Polish left winger, Maciej Rybus, doesn’t track back and cover his full-back.
On the other side O’Neill may opt for McClean. The best spell of the winger’s career came under O’Neill at Sunderland in 2012, and although he’s not as technically gifted as Robbie Brady, his direct style and crossing could cause issues for the inexperienced Olkowski.
3. Sort out set-pieces
Although it went badly wrong in the end, Giovanni Trapattoni initially made some much needed tweaks to the Irish team. He made the team difficult to beat, (as well as difficult to watch), sorted out our dour away record and greatly improved the team’s set-pieces. They became Ireland’s best chance of scoring, and we rarely surrendered goals at the other end.
Imagine how Trap must have felt watching Ireland concede from a corner against Scotland.
Shaun Maloney finished a well-worked routine to win the game, but Ireland were caught very flat and a repeat of such will fatally cost the team on Sunday.
Poland scored twice from set-pieces in their 4-0 win over Georgia last time out, with centre-half Kamil Glik opening the scoring from a corner. The Torino defender looks a particular threat, and is the top scoring defender in Serie A this season, with five times goals.
Poland are likely sit back, soak up pressure and look to catch Ireland on the break. Set-pieces will carry extra significance in such a tight game, and could ultimately make or break Ireland’s qualifying campaign.
4. Select Robbie Keane if playing 4-4-2
O’Neill’s decision to play 4-4-2 away to Scotland badly backfired. The team were outnumbered and overrun in midfield, as Shane Long and Jonathan Walters were starved of service and rarely offered any goal threat.
In the previous game against Germany, O’Neill played a three man central midfield, with Robbie Keane as the lone striker. It didn’t work and Ireland’s captain was effectively a passenger during his time on the pitch.
There’s an argument to be made that O’Neill got his formation wrong in both games, and he can’t afford to do again this Sunday.
If he starts with a lone striker, then use either Walters or Long, but if he goes with a strike duo, Keane has to play.
It appeared the only reason to play 4-4-2 was to accommodate Keane, yet he was dropped from the 1-0 loss. If O’Neill opts to start with two strikers, Keane simply has to play. Although both Walters and Long offer a greater physical presence, they lack the LA Galaxy striker’s finishing touch.
Keane remains the team’s best chance of getting a goal.
5. Win
You’re probably thinking this is an obvious one, but the team have been coy about whether Sunday’s game is a ‘must win’ game. It is. Make no mistake about it, Ireland have to win to secure automatic qualification. A draw may keep alive the team’s chances of securing third place in the group, a play-off place, but even then Ireland will have to beat Scotland at home in June, and hope other results work out favourably.
Despite what the group table reads, Ireland are effectively in a mini-group with Poland and Scotland. It may be presumptuous, but Germany will spark into life and bulldoze their way to Euro 2016, while everyone will beat Gibraltar, and, barring an upset, Georgia.
This leaves three teams, Ireland, Scotland and Poland, fighting for two places. Any points against Germany are akin to bonus points, but it’s the games between the three that will decide the group. So far, Ireland are in last spot and will remain there unless they can beat their main rivals.
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