Dundalk will need the cards to fall in their favour tonight.
Stephen Kenny’s side fell behind to an early goal from AZ Alkmaar striker Wout Weghorst in their penultimate Europa League group game two weeks ago and never really found a way back into proceedings.
WATCH:@AZAlkmaar take the lead at Tallaght Stadium through Wout Weghorst. #LOIinEurope https://t.co/UomDKGVi6N
— eir Sport (@eirSport) November 24, 2016
It’s all going to come down to the final round of fixtures in the group stages of the Europa League for the Lilywhites.
Whatever happens, Zenit St. Petersburg are going to top the group, as they’ve won all of their games thus far in the competition.
So, it is going to boil down to the points tallies of Dundalk, AZ Alkmaar and Maccabi Tel Aviv, all of whom are within a point of each other.
Dundalk are away to Maccabi Tel Aviv tonight, while AZ Alkmaar will host group leaders Zenit, and Stephen Kenny will set his side up knowing that a victory alone will not be enough to guarantee qualification.
They will need the group leaders to avoid defeat to stand any chance of making it out of the group.
If Dundalk beat Maccabi in Israel and Zenit beat AZ then the Irish side will qualify as runners-up, with the table looking like this.
1 – Zenit St. Petersburg (18pts)
2 – Dundalk (7pts)
3 – AZ Alkmaar (5pts)
4 – Maccabi tel Aviv (4pts)
Dundalk can still qualify if they win and AZ Alkmaar vs. Zenit finishes in a draw, a scenario which will see the group finish like this.
1 – Zenit St. Petersburg (16pts)
2 – Dundalk (7pts)
3 – AZ Alkmaar (6pts)
4 – Maccabi tel Aviv (4pts)
A score draw for Dundalk, combined with a Zenit victory, would also be enough for them to qualify as it would leave all sides but Zenit on five points but, due to the head-to-head records, Dundalk would progress according to our calculations.
1 – Zenit St. Petersburg (18pts)
2 – Dundalk (5pts)
3 – AZ Alkmaar (5pts)
4 – Maccabi tel Aviv (5pts)
Those are the only three situations which will provide a clear path for the Lilywhites as two draws will not be sufficient because that would see the groups finishing like this, meaning AZ Alkmaar would finish as runners-up.
1 – Zenit St. Petersburg (16pts)
2 – AZ Alkmaar (6pts)
3 – Dundalk (5pts)
4 – Maccabi tel Aviv (5pts)
So there you have it. In an ideal world, Dundalk would be victorious and Zenit would beat AZ Alkmaar, a scenario that would minimise the nail-biting among Lilywhites fans.
Dick Clerkin makes his GAA Hour debut to talk about a wonderful career and argue passionately with Colm Parkinson over Sky Sports GAA. Subscribe here on iTunes.
