England will play Colombia on Tuesday night in Moscow in the last-16 of the World Cup.
The winner of the tie between Gareth Southgate’s side and the South Americans will play either Sweden or Switzerland in the quarter-finals. They will then meet either Croatia or Russia in the semi-final. Of these six nations, only England and Sweden have played in a World Cup final before – in 1966 and 1958 respectively, when they were hosts of the tournament.
This appears to be a once in a generation chance for one of these sides to lift international football’s greatest prize. Yet, none of them can afford to look too far ahead. They really need to follow the old adage of taking it game by game. However, that hasn’t stopped some associated with the England team slightly losing the run of themselves and plotting their route to the final on July 15.
Just a reminder, one of these teams are guaranteed to be in the #WorldCup final on July 15 😮👀
🇷🇺 Russia
🇭🇷 Croatia
🇩🇰 Denmark
🇸🇪 Sweden
🇨🇭 Switzerland
🇨🇴 Colombia
🏴 England— SportsJOE (@SportsJOEdotie) July 1, 2018
Gary Neville said following England’s defeat to Belgium that Southgate’s side should be very positive about their chances of reaching the semi-finals of the tournament. Paul Merson told Sky Sports that he would be “shocked” if England don’t reach the last four. According to Merse, Colombia are a “poor” side.
Such talk appears to have influenced the betting market, as England have odds of 11/10 to win Tuesday’s game. Colombia are 3/1 to beat England (in normal time), a very generous price given how even the game looks set to be.
Croatia were 3/1 to beat Argentina in their group game and ended up winning the tie 3-0. In that case, it appears Argentina’s reputation and individual talent influenced people to back them over Croatia, a more balanced team. Something similar could be happening with England’s game against Colombia.
It’s difficult to understand how England are such favourites. The country last won a knockout game at a tournament back in 2006, and haven’t beaten a side of Colombia’s quality on this stage for a very long time. Since 2006, they have beaten Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, Ecuador, Slovenia, Tunisia and Panama at the World Cup.
England have won two knockout games at World Cups since 1990 https://t.co/hbv8L89w76
— SportsJOE (@SportsJOEdotie) July 1, 2018
Colombia have a solid defence. Tottenham’s Davinson Sanchez excelled during his first season in the Premier League and Yerry Mina of Barcelona is a threat from set-pieces – he has already scored twice at the tournament. Juan Cuadrado has tremendous pace and could exploit the space England’s wing-backs leave when they push forward.
Colombia also have creativity in midfield that England can only dream of. Juan Quintero is a gifted footballer capable of unlocking any defence, while James Rodriguez, the best player at the 2014 World Cup, will provide the magic spark if he is fit to feature. Up front, Radamel Falcao is a penalty box predator who has developed his all-round game in recent seasons and looks reborn after a tough couple of seasons in England.
David Ospina is a weak-link in goal, and England have scored goals from set-pieces at the tournament so far. But the idea that they’re big favourites for this match seems misguided. Colombia aren’t pushovers and it looks set to be a close tie.
